Broker's insight

By Tasos Papadopoulos,

SnP Broker-Intermodal Research & Valuations

The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!

 

As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.

 

Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!

 

China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note…

 

But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?

 

We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.

 

However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.

 

What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.

 

Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?

 

For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...

Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+  )

Despite the fact that rates for Capes didn't continue their crazy ride this past week, the Dry Bulk market has maintained its upward direction, with rates for Panamaxes and Supras firming at the back of a busy Atlantic. The BDI closed today (01/09/2013) at 1,994 points, down by 9 points compared to Monday’s levels (30/09/2013) and a decrease of 27 points compared to the previous Tuesday’s levels (24/09/2013). VLs managed to sustain their levels from the week before, as demand from China has kept things alive, while the Suezmax segment is still struggling with oversupply of tonnage in key regions. The BDTI Monday (30/09/2013), was at 584 points, a decrease of 1 point and the BCTI at 546, an increase of 17 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (23/09/2013).

 

Sale & Purchase (Wet: Stable+  / Dry: Stable+  )

It seems that owners are rushing to secure second-hand tonnage in anticipation of a further freight recovery that might take place during the last quarter of the year but also in order to secure a piece of the asset play that is already taking place, representative example of which is the “STAR FORTUNE” (170,974dwt-blt 1999, Japan) that was sold for $15.0m back in June and was rumoured being sold again at $17.0m this past week. On the tankers side, we had the sale of the “PACIFIC POLARIS” (47,999dwt-blt 04 , Japan), which was picked up by Greek buyers, for a price of US$ 17.2m. On the dry bulker side, we had the sale of the “TOSA SEA” (92,500dwt-blt 10, China), which went to Greek buyer, Empire Bulkers for a price of $ 20.0m.

 

Newbuilding (Wet: Stable+  / Dry: Stable+  )

Bring on the Bulkers !!! The majority of newbuilding orders that are being reported are still very much reflecting the renewed faith in the Dry Bulk sector that is bringing along some much needed business for Chinese yards that are evidently gaining the lion’s share from these orders. Yangzijiang Shipbuildning in China has only today revealed securing orders of six VLOCs, including options, which in addition to recently exercised options will add another $ 817.0m to the value of its orderbook for this year so far. In terms of concluded deals, Last week, in another vote of confidence to Chinese yards, Greek owner, Star Bulk Carriers was reported placing an order for two Newcastlemaxes (208,000dwt) at SWS, along with two Ultramaxes (61,000dwt) and another two Newcastlemaxes (209,000dwt) both at NACKS, with deliveries set between 2015 and 2016.

 

Demolition (Wet: Firm+  / Dry: Firm+  )

“The Return of India” could well be the title in last week’s demolition scene and what a comeback this has been. It seems that the move of the Reserve Bank of India to increase its repurchase rate has finally started feeding through market sentiment, which has been very supportive of the Indian Rupee. The local currency has recovered significantly against its US counterpart luring cash buyers away from the sidelines and back into action. The bids currently coming out of the Indian sub-Continent, have surpassed every expectation, with almost all deals being negotiated above 400$/ldt. Demand also appears to be quite impressive, as it seems that breakers’ appetite has been growing bigger following all these weeks of inactivity. At the same time breaking yards in China have missed the spotlight this past week both because of the surge in the Indian Sub-Continent bids but also due to upcoming holidays that start today. Chances are that the recess will further widen the price gap between China and the rest of the demo markets at least for the short term. Average prices this week for wet tonnage were at around 375-415$/ldt and dry units received about 365-405$/ldt.